Inflation in 2013 is likely to register approximately 6.15%, below the 8% level set by the National Assembly’s socio-economic development resolution and within Government target of 6–6.5%.
The consumer price index (CPI) increased in June and hit record monthly highs of 0.83% in August and 1.06% in September. It eased once more in October (0.49%) and November (0.34%).
A recent survey revealed credit organisations expect December’s CPI will rise around 0.62% from November readings. Respondents believe the Government has inflation under control.
The National Financial Supervisory Commission concurs, forecasting inflation in 2013 will not exceed 6.3%.
This is the second year Vietnam has contained inflation below the NA’s and Government’s targets.
Vietnam has not let ongoing international economic difficulties distract it from proactively working towards macroeconomic stability, contained inflation, and sustainable economic growth. The annual inflation rate fell from 23.02% in August 2011, to 7.5% in August 2013, to 5.78% in November 2013.
The same credit organisation survey recorded expectations of single-digit inflation -6.74% – in 2014. Keeping the rate below the NA’s set 7% target still presents a challenge.
Credit organisations say State price adjustments will directly impact inflationary movement in 2014. Additional inflationary pressures could come from higher economic growth target (5.8%), loosening State debt budgetary limits to 5.3% of GDP, and issuing more Government bonds.